This Wednesday we head to Sandown Hillside but once more for an additional twilight assembly.
We’ve bought an eight-race card in retailer, with the highest-rated race of the cardboard being a Benchmark 78, within the final race. The rail is out twelve metres for your entire circuit, so look ahead to the backmarkers at the moment, particularly if there’s a stable tempo all through a race.
The bureau predicts a stunning Melbourne day, with a prime of 28 levels and sunny. End work early and head right down to the observe to have a punt.
The primary on this system is a benchmark 64 handicap for the three-year-old fillies, over 1600 metres. It’s a reasonably open race right here, with numerous totally different kind strains coming into it, however the Maher educated LiveInTheFastLane seems the one to beat right here.
She gained effectively at Werribee two begins again to interrupt her maiden towards Spacex, have been she confirmed a very nice flip of foot, after which backed up at Werribee final begin over this journey the place she was unfortunate to not win. She was held up for practically 250 metres and solely went down by slightly below a size, so it’s believable to say she would have gained that race hopefully.
She ought to get a good looking run within the race from barrier one, and with even luck she’ll be arduous to carry out. Miss Daiquiri is subsequent finest. The Cumani educated Filly gained impressively on debut at Werribee, by a margin of 4 lengths after main all the best way over 1100 metres. She got here to the lakeside observe final begin, in a really related grade to this, and had no luck in anyway.
She bought caught 4 deep with none cowl, and for a filly in solely her second begin, she did effectively to solely end six lengths off them. She will get a greater run at the moment and provides them one thing to chase. Threeood is the one different hazard.
The Value yard clearly thinks one thing of this filly, after operating it in good races as a two-year-old, and he or she ought to be able to peak third up after a promising run at Pakenham. Not out of it.
Beneficial guess: Can’t see a lot worth on provide right here, in all probability a race I’d be staying out of.
We’ve bought a maiden for the three-year-olds within the second, over 1300 metres. Undecided what they’ll do from the barrier, however Duke Of Magnus seems very arduous to beat right here. He ran in an excellent maiden behind Saccharo and Mawaard final preparation earlier than being spelt, after which resumed with second behind Quick Stepping, who has gained since, at Geelong.
He then went to the Valley and ran three huge the journey, and nonetheless solely missed out by 1 / 4 of a size. These kind strains are glorious for a race like this, and whether or not they go to the entrance or to the rear, he’ll be very arduous to beat on this. Ritch Itch seems just like the one I’ll be saving on on this.
He beat Halvorsen house on debut the place he completed second at Cranbourne, after which was crushed by a size towards Kaplumpich on the Valley. He over-raced on the Valley resuming after which travelled three huge on a heavy eight at Yarra Valley final begin. I’m prepared to forgive these two runs, and he ought to be able to peak third up.
If he can discover his finest he’s the apparent hazard.
Ready to threat Sadente on this. She does have good kind strains from final preparation, operating behind the likes of Sikorsky, however she seems like a down and out stayer. If there’s a dash to the road, I doubt she will go along with them.
Beneficial guess: going fairly huge on this race with a win guess on #four Duke of Magnus, with a saver on #7 Wealthy Itch.
One other maiden right here within the third, over 1300 metres at set weights. That is presumably the worst area I’ve seen at Sandown for a mid-week metropolis race, however there’s nonetheless a winner to be discovered. Decide O’Reilly in all probability represents one of the best worth on the $5 quote.
He ran six lengths behind Age of Chivalry three begins again, after which backed that up with ending 5 lengths off Pieropan and Ronan’s Rock the beginning after that. He completed half a size off them at Bendigo coming from final, and although there seems to be no tempo on up entrance, the swoopers ought to just like the situations at the moment. Massive likelihood.
Stockata is the apparent hazard, however there’s not an opportunity that I might take him within the purple. He’s bred effectively and he in all probability ought to have gained at Pakenham on debut behind Makfi Amour, however in solely his second race begin, he hasn’t confirmed something to me to justify the quick quote.
Noir Jack is the blowout likelihood in a race that’s arrange for one.
He’s bred effectively and he’s trialled fairly effectively going into this race. Ought to get the gun run from barrier 4 and if he can modify to the races he’ll be proper in it.
Beneficial guess: Once more, a no guess race for mine. No worth in anyway.
A significantly better race right here within the fourth, a Benchmark 70 for the fillies and Mares over 1400 metres. Fairly open race right here and I anticipate there will likely be a reasonably sturdy tempo arrange entrance with just a few of the fancied runners having to cross from huge obstacles, which units it up for Formidable Gem at sensible every means odds.
She’s been comparatively unfortunate this preparation, because the run at Caulfield the place she ran 5 deep to complete 5 lengths off Twitchy Frank. She gained a Benchmark 64 race at this observe over 1500 metres, after which was extremely unfortunate on the Lakeside observe the place she by no means bought clear air.
She failed final begin however she missed the kick in that race, and I’m prepared to forgive her on that run. If Punch can swap her off in the course of the run, she’ll produce an almighty dash down the surface with the rail out twelve metres. Appears to be like like nice worth. Dancing Tycoon is among the essential risks.
She ticks numerous bins right here. She was caught huge resuming and nonetheless completed second, after which she over raced over 1200 metres on the Valley final begin.
She ought to be peaking third up, and he or she loves this distance, with a win and a 3rd from two tries. Optimistically getting throughout, she is among the horses to beat. I’m fairly reluctant to leap off HereComesMyBaby off a poor run after being caught huge in a greater race than this at Flemington final begin.
She’ll get a greater run at the moment, and if she is at her finest, she in all probability wins this race. She is difficult to catch.
Beneficial guess: Every means guess on #5 Formidable Gem.
A Benchmark 64 handicap over 1300 metres is the following on this system, with a giant area of 13 being entered. No Drama Darci is the deserving favorite, and the three 12 months previous seems very arduous to beat on this. His kind strains have been terrific since his debut for a race like this.
He completed a size behind Notation in his second begin earlier than being spelled, and resumed with an incredible win at Pakenham over Gennikay to interrupt his maiden. He simply missed towards Age of Chivalry final begin on the Lakeside observe, who went on to complete second within the CS Hayes Stakes a fortnight in the past.
From barrier seven, Ben Melham ought to be capable of dictate the place he sits within the run and with even luck, he’ll be close to unattainable to beat. I’ve bought Millie The Missile because the second decide. Her final two runs have been encouraging for a race like this.
She was unfortunate at Caulfield when she bought checked, and he or she battled on effectively at Geelong to complete below two lengths off them after having to maintain a long term.
Might be coming house strongly. Permissive Star was actually good in his debut win at Benalla, however there’s not an opportunity I might take him on the present quote at $2.80. He’s bred very well, and he ought to have the velocity to cross from the huge barrier and make his personal luck, however I’d want to see at this grade first.
Beneficial guess: Fairly huge win guess on #7 No Drama Darci.
We’ve bought one other Benchmark 64 handicap, this time over the Caulfield Cup distance of 2400 metres. Undoubtedly probably the most open race on the cardboard, however I’m giving Nothin’ Leica Excessive yet another likelihood at the moment.
He travelled three huge three begins in the past and nonetheless managed to complete 4 lengths away from the inform Prince Ziggy, after which backed that up the place he bought a shocker of a journey from Martin Seidl. He would have undoubtedly been within the end that day, and ran below 4 lengths away once more after not seeing clear air the entire means down the straight.
He didn’t have any excuses final begin, the place he completed zero.2 of a size away from Vellaspride. The excellent news is there’s no Vellaspride on this race, and he attracts effectively to storm everywhere in the prime of them.
Chouxting The Mob seems like the primary risk. He labored house effectively two begins in the past at Kyneton over 1850 metres to complete slightly below three lengths away, after which he went to Kyneton once more, however this time he gained by practically three lengths over 1875 metres.
He’s confirmed he can run this distance, successful at his solely strive, and from barrier three he attracts to do no work. With even luck he’ll be proper in it at double determine odds. Bijou Belle successful wouldn’t shock. She tried to steer all the best way at this observe final begin, the place she was crushed a size and a half by Vellaspride and Nothin’ Leica Excessive.
From barrier two she maps to get the gun run on the velocity, and he or she’ll make her personal luck. Undoubtedly not out of it.
Beneficial guess: Win guess on #four Nothin’ Leica Excessive, with a saver on #6 Chouxting The Mob.
One of many higher races on this system comes right here within the seventh, a Benchmark 70 handicap over 1500 metres. Actually open race and I believe Gold Magazine is the one to beat, nonetheless, I don’t suppose I might take the present quote of $2.90 from the huge gate.
His kind strains are very spectacular, ending below a size behind Tin Hat, who went on to win the Manfred Stakes after which ending a size and a half off the very gifted duo of Bravo Tango and DeclarationOfHeart. There are just a few queries although, such because the huge barrier and the place Craig Williams will try to place him, and the actual fact he’s by no means been over 1300 metres.
He’s one of the best horse within the race, however there shapes to be a boilover. I’m going to spec Dinner Lake on the huge odds. He does rise in grade right here from the final begin, however he’s had excuses every time he’s been at this stage, so I’m prepared to forgive them two runs.
He ran very well final begin and if the race was that little bit additional he in all probability nabs River Jewel on the road. He ticks numerous bins right here, he will get higher as his preparation progresses, and he appears to love this observe.
He’ll get again and wish the luck from barrier one, however I’m prepared to have one thing on him. Diplomac Jack is one of the best of the remainder. He’s been in super kind this preparation, successful two from three, together with a superb win over the mile at this grade final begin. He’s drawn huge however he was going to return anyhow off a sizzling tempo.
If Declan Bates can get him a pleasant spot within the run, he’ll have a lot to present down the straight when it issues.
Beneficial guess: Every means guess on #11 Dinner Lake.
The very best rated race of the day comes right here within the final, a Benchmark 78 handicap over 1800 metres. Let’s simply hope we don’t need to “get out” within the final. Very bullish about Mount Kilcoy’s possibilities on this race, out of the Patrick Payne Yard.
His kind final preparation, ending half a size behind Mr Cash Baggage after which beating Masculino, seems actually good for a race like this.
He hasn’t discovered his finest kind this preparation, however he’s had excuses travelling huge in each of his runs this preparation, particularly at Pakenham the place he solely missed by half a size. He will get higher as his preparation goes alongside, and he ought to be able to get again to his finest third up. Barring dangerous luck, he seems arduous to beat.
Humbolt Present is subsequent finest. The England import was operating effectively again house, over 2000 metres in ranking eighty races. His first Australian run was stuffed with benefit at Moonee Valley when he closed off properly over the mile behind Paremuus Boy and Intueri. He’s in all probability in search of additional now, but when Michael Walker may give him journey, he’ll be charging house late.
Zebrinz is one of the best roughie on this race. He narrowly missed within the Camperdown Cup towards Right here to There, after which missed by a size to Strategic Demand in The Nice Western Cup. He closed off properly over 2000 metres final begin within the Colac Cup, and in the event that they go arduous in entrance he’ll be one other one who’s coming house strongly.
Could possibly be a quaddie killer.
Beneficial guess: Fairly huge win guess on #10 Mount Kilcoy.
Finest guess: Race 5 #7 No Drama Darci.
Second-best guess: Race eight #10 Mount Kilcoy.
Finest worth: Race four #5 Formidable Gem.