One other good week for us, selecting up 5 out of six for the second time in a row.
We’re again to a full slate of 9 video games this spherical; let’s get into our ideas.
Thursday 27th June
Essendon vs GWS
7.20pm at Marvel Stadium
The Giants managed to drag off a victory throughout their bye week, as the 2 different largest contenders, Geelong and Collingwood, appeared exceedingly weak in a loss and unconvincing win respectively.
GWS have already blown out Essendon as soon as this yr and get the chance to take action once more, this time away from the stronghold that’s Giants Stadium.
Sadly for Essendon, their residence floor benefit is dampened considerably by the continued absence of Jake Stringer and questions across the health of Orazio Fantasia.
The Bombers are hanging onto the slimmest of out of doors probabilities at a finals spot; one other loss makes the maths much more unfavourable.
Regardless of that shocker in opposition to Hawthorn on the MCG, GWS are presently 2-1 within the state of Victoria this season; they need to be ok to choose up one other win right here.
The tip: GWS
Friday 28th June
Geelong vs Adelaide
7.50pm at GMHBA
Now that is tasty. Adelaide, again in enterprise after two high quality wins earlier than the bye, catching league frontrunners Geelong, recent off their worst efficiency of the season.
The match-up of gamers and types is tantalising proper throughout the bottom.
Adelaide have fashioned their identification round their defence this season, conceding the third least factors within the league, whereas Geelong have accomplished the identical on the different finish of the bottom, with their re-tooled ahead line producing each quantity (most complete factors scored) and effectivity (league main 1.89 factors per inside 50).
What has elevated the Cats to be the dominant group of 2019, although, is the truth that their defence has additionally been stellar, conceding the least complete factors of any group up to now.
In the meantime, the Crows offense, a few years faraway from their barnstorming 2017, has been largely middling; its season lengthy mark of 82.three factors per recreation (ppg) solely good for eighth within the league.
Nevertheless, within the final three matches (all wins) Adelaide has upped that quantity to 91 ppg, which might be high 4 if maintained for the total season.
So to recap, that’s two nice defences in opposition to a fantastic offense and an offense taking part in nice in the mean time; and we haven’t even bought to the midfields but.
Tim Kelly has arguably been the league’s finest participant this season; Patrick Dangerfield is arguably the perfect participant within the league full cease; Brad Crouch is in profession finest kind; Rory Sloane is a killer and continues to be underrated.
I can’t watch for this recreation. The deciding issue although? GMHBA stadium, the place the Crows haven’t gained since 2003. The Cats will bounce again from a uncommon blemish.
The tip: Geelong
Saturday 29th June
Hawthorn vs West Coast
1.45pm at MCG
The Eagles reversed their regular methodology of successful this previous week. As a substitute of sniping targets from restricted alternatives, West Coast squandered a lot of simple photographs at aim however dominated territory and possession (season excessive +24 inside 50 differential).
It may very well be extra of the identical this week in opposition to a Hawthorn group that simply misplaced the territory battle (-9 inside 50 differential) in opposition to a Swans group that often spots their opposition 11 further ahead 50 entries per recreation (second worst within the league).
On high of that, the Eagles will welcome again the sport altering Nic Naitanui, and probably Tom Barrass, who will cowl for the suspended Jeremy McGovern and additional stiffen the already stable backline.
Associated – how nice is Brad Sheppard? The person by no means loses a contest.
The Eagles have been scorching on the MCG recently, successful 4 in a row, together with a recreation you could have heard about final yr. I believe they make it 5 in a row right here.
The tip: West Coast
Sydney vs Gold Coast
four.35pm at SCG
Sydney have turned a little bit of a nook previously month or so, going from one of many worst groups within the comp to simply plain previous under common.
They’ve gained three of their final 5 and with the underside two groups plus a reeling Essendon on the docket for the subsequent three weeks, have an excellent alternative to carry their season ledger again to respectability.
Shedding Lance Franklin once more is a giant blow, significantly since he was wanting near his finest once more, however the Swans ahead line is deeper and extra versatile than in years previous.
Tom Papley is prospering up ahead, Sam Reid is beginning to stand up to hurry with AFL degree competitors after lacking mainly all of final yr, Will Hayward and Dan Menzel are again from damage, and the emergence of Nick Blakey in his first season has in all probability been the largest constructive of Sydney’s season up to now.
The Suns sprung an enormous upset on the Swans final yr, so that you’d suppose John Longmire gained’t let that occur once more. Gold Coast can be steadied by the returns of Touk Miller and Pearce Hanley, however the Suns simply aren’t able to taking part in at a excessive sufficient degree for a full recreation in opposition to a superior group on the street.
The tip: Sydney
Collingwood vs North Melbourne
7.25pm at Marvel Stadium
Collingwood could have gained on the weekend, however Nathan Buckley was completely scathing in his evaluation of his personal group, saying it was the “worst we’ve performed for a very long time” and publicly roasting Brodie Grundy, who ended up being voted finest on floor.
Evidently then, there can be no prizes for predicting that the Pies will come out respiratory fireplace Saturday night time.
In a scary signal for the remainder of the groups within the comp, Collingwood proceed to simply cowl any personnel losses they incur; the newest being Matt Scharenberg dominating the VFL simply as Jeremy Howe goes down with a calf damage.
Even when he doesn’t come straight again into the group this week although, Scharenberg illustrates the loopy depth that has allowed the Pies to beat accidents/suspensions to key gamers similar to Dayne Beams, Taylor Adams, Jamie Elliott, Tom Langdon, Jaidyn Stephenson and Mason Cox all year long.
So whereas the Kangaroos are taking part in loads higher for the reason that departure of Brad Scott (extra on them subsequent week), there’s no manner Collingwood are dropping this recreation.
The tip: Collingwood
Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs
7.40pm at Adelaide Oval
Do now we have to take Port Adelaide critically once more? Maintaining Geelong to 56 factors (the Cats lowest for the season) will on the very least make us arise and take discover.
It nonetheless makes me nervous although. This week’s recreation in opposition to the scuffling Bulldogs looms as a basic entice forward of two huge contests in opposition to finals contenders Adelaide and Brisbane.
On paper, the Energy midfield dominance (first in inside 50 and clearance differential, third in contested possession differential) ought to overpower or on the very least negate the Bulldogs personal energy in these areas (third in inside 50 and clearance differential, 11th in contested possession differential).
Add within the clear benefit Port Adelaide holds in ahead and backline expertise, plus the Adelaide Oval (the place the Bulldogs are 1-5 all time), and this ought to be a simple win. I’ll tip Port, however you may’t make me really feel comfy about it till they get the job accomplished.
The tip: Port Adelaide
Sunday 30th June
St Kilda vs Richmond
1.10pm at Marvel Stadium
The time is now for Richmond to get their marketing campaign again on observe.
After three straight losses, by a median of 45.7 factors, the Tigers have discovered themselves on the skin of the finals image wanting in, because of a really ugly proportion of 92.
However don’t write them off simply but, as a result of right here come the reinforcements. Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Kane Lambert and David Astbury ought to be again this week.
Jayden Quick gained’t be far behind, and even Jack Riewoldt and Toby Nankervis are creeping nearer to their returns. Even higher for Richmond followers, the Tigers get an opportunity to resurrect that flagging proportion determine with match-ups in opposition to the hapless Saints and struggling Suns over the subsequent two weeks.
St Kilda could also be just one win behind the groups jostling for the final couple of finals spots, however don’t child your self about what they’re.
The fourth worst proportion within the league reveals the Saints’ true nature. Not less than Dan Hannebery truly appeared fairly good! Let’s hope he can keep wholesome now and show me improper.
The tip: Richmond
Brisbane vs Melbourne
three.20pm at Gabba
When a group comes right into a season with authentic premiership aspirations and proceeds to play like rubbish, it’s solely pure to have a nagging feeling that they might ultimately determine it out once more.
However, within the case of Melbourne this yr, it’s important to squash that feeling till they offer us a motive to not.
The Demons managed a win final week, however whereas a line of 13 targets seven behinds could appear like Melbourne found out how one can kick at aim once more, in addition they had seven photographs that didn’t register a rating and completed the match at 1.25 factors per inside 50, barely above their season lengthy, league worst determine.
In the meantime, Brisbane did what a finals group ought to and convincingly knocked off a lesser group on the street; now they must repeat that at residence, the place they’re 5-1 this yr.
For those who imagine the Lions will make the finals, and I do, then this recreation must be a win.
The tip: Brisbane
Fremantle vs Carlton
5.20pm at Optus Stadium
I actually don’t need to spend an excessive amount of time even interested by this recreation. Even with a few recent accidents to Jesse Hogan and Stephen Hill, something lower than a snug win could be an absolute catastrophe for Fremantle.
The Dockers can see your Patrick Cripps and lift you a Nat Fyfe. The skin run of Ed Langdon, Brad Hill and co. ought to run amok in opposition to their inexperienced counterparts, and the stable, scrambling again line led by Luke Ryan and Joel Hamling will have the ability to restrict the Blues’ budding tall ahead crop.
Plus, the Dockers are significantly better at residence, going 5-2 to this point; with a kind of losses in opposition to fellow Optus Stadium tenants West Coast. Save your bullets for subsequent week in opposition to the beatable Demons, Carlton.
The tip: Fremantle
Final week: 5-1
Total report: 76-41