Welcome again for week 16 of the NFL Joes vs. Professionals breakdown. If you’re considering who the “sharp” cash is on, or if video games have reverse line motion, that is the place to be. This shouldn’t be the top all be all in your wagers, however simply one other software to think about if you are placing your card collectively. Sports activities Insights is the place I get my percentages from.
Earlier than we bounce into it, some normal betting phrases to know:
Joes: Who most of the people is overwhelming betting on. Round 60% or increased is an efficient baseline.
Professionals: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, large bettors, no matter you need to name them. Principally, who the massive cash is on within the sport.
Reverse Line Motion (RLM): When the vast majority of bets are on one aspect, however the line strikes in the wrong way. Normally an indicator of “sensible” cash.
If you happen to tailed the sharps final week, you’d’ve gone 1-Zero (16-7 YTD), because the Niners beat the Seahawks straight up. Right now, one sport match each the Joes vs. Professionals discrepancy and reverse line motion. If in case you have learn this column earlier than, normally the system factors to taking canine. Right now it’s fading the canine, and going with a favourite:
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-10)
55% of the general public is on the Bengals, even with all of their accidents. Possibly they suppose the quantity is just too excessive, or simply that the Browns received’t be motivated since they’re formally eradicated from the playoffs. Nonetheless, the “Professional” cash has are available in on Browns (59%), driving this line method up from -7 to -10. This means large reverse line motion on Cleveland. To be truthful, a few of that transfer is harm associated, however it’s nonetheless an enormous bounce within the line and suits what we search for.
I additionally spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Threat Administration at CG Know-how, who had the next to say about right now’s video games.
Largest want: Jets and Payments. All of the parlays are tied into the Bears and Saints, so we might want to get a type of.
Sharp vs. Public:
Playing cards +14 vs. Rams