Welcome again for Week 17 of the NFL Joes vs. Execs breakdown. In case you are excited by who the “sharp” cash is on, or if video games have reverse line motion, that is the place to be. This shouldn’t be the tip all be all on your wagers, however simply one other software to think about if you are placing your card collectively. Sports activities Insights is the place I get my percentages from.
Earlier than we leap into it, some basic betting phrases to know:
Joes: Who most people is overwhelming betting on. Round 60% or greater is an efficient baseline.
Execs: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, massive bettors, no matter you wish to name them. Mainly, who the massive cash is on within the sport.
Reverse Line Motion (RLM): When the vast majority of bets are on one facet, however the line strikes in the other way. Often an indicator of “sensible” cash.
Should you tailed the sharps final week, you’d’ve gone Zero-1 (17-Eight YTD), because the Bengals coated on a nasty backdoor in opposition to the Browns. At present, one sport match each the Joes vs. Execs discrepancy and reverse line motion. Full disclosure, Week 17 has lots of variance as a result of starters resting, motivation, and playoff positioning:
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
55% of the general public is on the Bears, however the “Professional” cash has are available in on Vikings (67%), driving this line up from -Four to -6. This means big reverse line motion on the Vikings. A few of this may be attributed to the opportunity of the Bears resting their starters if the Rams are up massive at halftime. The Bears and Vikings residence vs. highway splits additionally favor the Vikings on this one.
I additionally spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Danger Administration at CG Know-how, who had the next to say about at present’s video games.
Largest want: Browns and Panthers
Sharp vs. Public:
Redskins +7 vs. Eagles
Jags +7 vs. Texans