Welcome again for week 16 of the NFL Joes vs. Execs breakdown. If you’re occupied with who the “sharp” cash is on, or if video games have reverse line motion, that is the place to be. This shouldn’t be the tip all be all in your wagers, however simply one other software to contemplate when you are placing your card collectively. Sports activities Insights is the place I get my percentages from.
Earlier than we leap into it, some basic betting phrases to know:
Joes: Who most people is overwhelming betting on. Round 60% or larger is an effective baseline.
Execs: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, huge bettors, no matter you need to name them. Mainly, who the large cash is on within the sport.
Reverse Line Motion (RLM): When nearly all of bets are on one aspect, however the line strikes in the wrong way. Often an indicator of “good” cash.
When you tailed the sharps final week, you’d’ve gone 1-Zero (16-7 YTD), because the Niners beat the Seahawks straight up. In the present day, one sport match each the Joes vs. Execs discrepancy and reverse line motion. If in case you have learn this column earlier than, often the system factors to taking canines. In the present day it’s fading the canine, and going with a favourite:
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-10)
55% of the general public is on the Bengals, even with all of their accidents. Perhaps they assume the quantity is just too excessive, or simply that the Browns gained’t be motivated since they’re formally eradicated from the playoffs. Nonetheless, the “Professional” cash has are available on Browns (59%), driving this line method up from -7 to -10. This means big reverse line motion on Cleveland. To be honest, a few of that transfer is harm associated, however it’s nonetheless a giant leap within the line and suits what we search for.