Welcome again for week 16 of the NFL Joes vs. Execs breakdown. In case you are all for who the “sharp” cash is on, or if video games have reverse line motion, that is the place to be. This shouldn’t be the tip all be all to your wagers, however simply one other device to think about if you are placing your card collectively. Sports activities Insights is the place I get my percentages from.
Earlier than we soar into it, some basic betting phrases to know:
Joes: Who most of the people is overwhelming betting on. Round 60% or greater is an effective baseline.
Execs: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, massive bettors, no matter you wish to name them. Mainly, who the massive cash is on within the recreation.
Reverse Line Motion (RLM): When nearly all of bets are on one facet, however the line strikes in the other way. Often an indicator of “good” cash.
In the event you tailed the sharps final week, you’d’ve gone 1-Zero (16-7 YTD), because the Niners beat the Seahawks straight up. Right now, one recreation match each the Joes vs. Execs discrepancy and reverse line motion. If in case you have learn this column earlier than, often the system factors to taking canines. Right now it’s fading the canine, and going with a favourite:
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-10)
55% of the general public is on the Bengals, even with all of their accidents. Possibly they assume the quantity is simply too excessive, or simply that the Browns received’t be motivated since they’re formally eradicated from the playoffs. Nonetheless, the “Professional” cash has are available in on Browns (59%), driving this line means up from -7 to -10. This means large reverse line motion on Cleveland. To be truthful, a few of that transfer is damage associated, however it’s nonetheless a giant soar within the line and suits what we search for.
I additionally spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Danger Administration at CG Expertise, who had the next to say about right now’s video games.
Largest want: Jets and Payments. All of the parlays are tied into the Bears and Saints, so we might want to get a type of.
Sharp vs. Public:
Playing cards +14 vs. Rams