March Insanity will likely be beginning to brew in a few days. We’re simply over two weeks from Choice Sunday. The image close to the bubble is beginning to take form and solidify. With simply two weeks of standard season video games left within the main conferences, and fewer in some mid-major leagues, I rely 28 groups as being within the area. They’ll have an effect on their seeding by collapsing, however they need to be in. Of these, 9 would at present be assigned an auto bid spot.
That leaves the next:
Virtually Definitely In, Mid-Main Version: Wofford. Wanting dropping their final three video games, I believe the Terriers are in, and even then I believe they fall to a play-in recreation. I wrote about Wofford being a crew to observe yesterday.
Don’t Collapse, Excessive Main Version: These groups at present profile within the eight/9 seed vary. They’ll afford some losses, however possibly not a whole collapse. All of their comparable groups made the tourney and none needed to play in Dayton.
Okay, in order that has us to 26 at-large allocations, and 11 auto-bid allocations together with Wofford from the Southern Convention and Washington from the Pac-12. That places us at what I might think about the true bubble. A most of ten at-large spots, however nearly actually a quantity that can shrink. Final week, I wrote about how we should always anticipate bubble shrinkage by about three spots. The at-large pool is basically concentrated in a number of conferences.
You have got a serious convention within the Pac-12 that has solely two viable at-large candidates, and is more likely to produce a champion that will not in any other case be within the area. Nevada, Buffalo, and Wofford are within the area, however another crew knocking them off within the convention tourney would push them to the at-large group. Gonzaga and Houston are extremely ranked, however an enormous upset would shake issues up. The Massive East may nonetheless produce a shock with solely three at-large groups solidly in proper now. After which there are another mid-majors which have a case to go to Dayton in the event that they lose of their event finals.
So you may see extra like seven spots for these groups, and fewer if issues go actually loopy in Championship Week. I utilized the same resume function by Bart Torvik (although I did alter the weights to extra worth NET/RPI score and Resume elements) and I checklist the weighted odds of constructing it as an at-large primarily based on projected median end.
Oklahoma (100%): I believe the comparables considerably overstate Oklahoma’s odds, although they’re nonetheless in proper now. We all know the committee doesn’t weight convention video games otherwise than non-conference or early video games, so the 5-10 convention break up alone, versus 12-1 in non-conference, doesn’t matter. What may matter, although, is Oklahoma going a mixed Zero-10 in opposition to the very best groups they confronted in Kansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor. I believe they should beat West Virginia at dwelling after which break up in opposition to Kansas and Kansas State to be on the fitting facet coming into the Massive 12 tourney.