We dive deeper into the potential powertrain and revenue evaluation surrounding the all-new mid-range Tesla Mannequin three.
We’ve had two superb articles on the Tesla Mannequin three powertrain and implications on gross margin. Each are primarily based on an evaluation by Troy at Teslike (articles right here and right here).
In these article Troy predicts the dimensions of the battery pack in Mannequin three mid vary and calculates its impact on gross margin. He predicts a slight discount in gross margin primarily based on his estimate of the mid vary’s battery pack dimension.
Our outcomes are barely totally different. We predict Tesla has diminished the pack dimension greater than Troy’s prediction. We additionally assume the mid vary’s rear drive unit is decrease energy than the long-range drive unit. There are secondary financial savings as properly in wiring sizes.
We’re predicting a battery dimension of round 61 kWh usable and a rear drive unit with a horsepower nearer the brief vary’s hp (220 hp). Due to this fact, our value financial savings related to going to the mid-range model are barely greater than Teslike’s prediction.
Our battery is predicted to be roughly 61 kWh usable with a cell rely of 3446 cells (vs 4416 within the LR). Appears low? Keep in mind that there’s an additional margin within the LR battery pack. Tesla deliberately lowered the vary on the long-range model from 334 miles (ref) to 310 miles. Within the mid-range model, we’re predicting they are going to eradicate that margin. There are additionally some secondary results that end in a pack being barely smaller: much less weight because of the smaller pack will increase vary, much less margin wanted since there isn’t any AWD mid-range model. The mid-range model pack estimate is 17.three usable kWh’s lower than the long-range model and at 115$/kWh that leads to a decrease cell value to Tesla of 1990$.
However, the battery will not be the one financial savings within the mid-range model. We estimate the brand new mid-range motor to have 220 HP (diminished from 271 HP within the lengthy vary model). Why such a giant discount? … Slower acceleration and a gear ratio change to assist acceleration instances for the reason that prime velocity is decrease within the mid-range model.
Along with the financial savings within the battery and the motor/inverter, there shall be financial savings in wiring as properly attributable to decrease currents.
So, Tesla has dropped the worth of the mid-range model $four,000, however they’ve diminished the cell value by round $2,000 and moved to a smaller motor, inverter, and wiring (primarily based on our estimate). This could push the fee financial savings near $four,000.
*This text was a workforce effort between the writer and Keith Ritter.