Reality: Everybody’s predictions sucked final week, so I didn’t really feel horrible about solely going two for 5.
However, the numbers look good to me for Spherical 5 on the ‘ELO-Following Soccer’ scores chart, so let’s see what they spit out earlier than we get into some additional info concerning the AFLW season so far:
Brisbane vs Geelong at Moreton Bay Central Sports activities Complicated
Now we have the Lions by 7.6 factors, and we’ll experience that quantity. Regardless of the issues with the convention system, the fixture has produced the suitable video games on the proper instances within the fixture.
Carlton vs Collingwood at Ikon Park
The ‘conventional’ (for 2 years) schedule opener reveals up in Spherical 5, and we’ve the Blues as eight.2-point favourites. Win and we’ll get yet one more top-of-the-ladder sport between the Blues and Lions subsequent week.
Better Western Sydney vs Melbourne at Blacktown Worldwide Sportspark
Whereas GWS received and the Demons misplaced final week, you’ll be able to hardly contemplate them the recent workforce coming into this one. Now we have Melbourne as 15.2 factors to the great on this sport. It may very well be much less, it may very well be way more, however that feels just like the centre of the bell curve of potentialities right here.
North Melbourne vs Adelaide at Avalon Airport Oval
As soon as once more the strain’s on the brand new youngsters, whose roster is crammed with the outdated youngsters from the opposite groups, and as soon as once more we anticipate them to come back by way of and stay undefeated. We favour the Shinboners by 7.eight factors, though after final week we’ll simply guess the win, thanks.
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs at Fremantle Oval
It appears unfair that the defending champs needs to be the primary workforce knocked out of finals rivalry – and it’s doable Collingwood will beat them to it, relying on outcomes – however we favour the purple aspect by 11.2 factors right here, which can put the Canines at the very least two video games plus a head-to-head behind each Freo and the Kangaroos, thus knocking them out of the potential for a top-two Convention A end. Sure, there would technically be a share risk in the event that they win the final two video games 100-Zero. Don’t hassle, Western followers; simply put together for the boys’s season in the event that they lose right here.
Final week: 2-Three, and grateful for even that a lot success.
However now onto some additional fascinating info.
Reality: In Spherical Three North Melbourne performed the workforce seen as their chief rival, the 2-Zero defending premiers, the Western Bulldogs, who had the best ELO-FF score within the league in addition to the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos received 53-22.
Reality: In Spherical four North Melbourne performed the workforce seen on the time as their chief rival, the 2-1 Melbourne Demons, coming off a 39-point win in opposition to Brisbane and whose solely loss was lower than a aim whereas scoring 55 factors themselves in opposition to Fremantle. The Demons additionally at sport time had the best ELO-FF score within the league after the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos received 38-34.
Reality: In Spherical 5 North Melbourne will play the workforce now seen as their chief rival, the Three-1 Adelaide Crows, who enter the spherical on a three-game win streak, having dismantled the Dockers by 42 factors and whose solely loss was by one-point downing to the Doggies. And, sure, they at present have the best ELO-FF score within the league after the Kangaroos. Would you be shocked to know that we favour the Kangas to win this sport as nicely?
Reality: In Spherical 7 North Melbourne will play the workforce who will undoubtedly then be thought-about their chief rival, the Fremantle Dockers, who’re at present Three-1 and have two video games between every now and then they are going to be favoured to win, which might make them 5-1 – and, sure, it’ll most likely give them one of the best ELO-FF score earlier than Spherical 7. Only a hunch.
Reality: Ellie Blackburn could be the hardest participant on this whole league. She’s taken a lickin’ and stored on tickin’, struggling one other pounding within the sport in opposition to Brisbane final Saturday. And but she continues to excel for the Bulldogs – actually she’s within the prime ten league-wide for the meta-player of the 12 months standings and sits alone atop the Western Bulldogs ladder.
That is the highest 20 checklist for that meta-player of the 12 months title after 4 of seven rounds. We use 9 sources for our level totals right here versus 14 for the boys. Asterisks mark the highest participant for every workforce.
- Erin Phillips, Adelaide* – 112 factors
- Ally Anderson, Brisbane* – 100 factors
- Madison Prespakis, Carlton* – 97 factors
- Emma King, North Melbourne* – 89 factors
- Ebony Marinoff, Adelaide – 88 factors
- Jess Duffin, North Melbourne – 87 factors
- Karen Paxman, Melbourne* – 86 factors
- Ellie Blackburn, Western Bulldogs* – 84 factors
- Anne Hatchard, Adelaide – 84 factors
- Emma Kearney, North Melbourne – 83 factors
- Lauren Pearce, Melbourne – 80 factors
- Kiara Bowers, Fremantle* – 77 factors
- Elise O’Dea, Melbourne – 71 factors
- Nat Exon, Brisbane – 69 factors
- Maddy McMahon, Geelong* – 68 factors
- Stevie-Lee Thompson, Adelaide – 66 factors
- Jess Wuetschner, Brisbane – 66 factors
- Cora Staunton, Geelong* – 65 factors
- Dana Hooker, Fremantle – 64 factors
- Ash Brazill, Collingwood* – 63 factors
- Aliesha Newman, Melbourne – 63 factors
Reality: Scoring is up. In actual fact scoring is up from season to season and spherical to spherical. Many articles have been written about why – I laid out the essential causes myself two weeks in the past – however the gist of it’s that the talent ranges of the ladies enjoying the sport have improved to the purpose the place at the very least half the groups within the AFLW can play a extra open sport than the scrum-filled model that dominated the primary two seasons.
Let’s have a look at the precise numbers. Listed here are the typical scores per workforce per sport:
2017, Rounds 1 to four: 30.72.
2017, Rounds 5 to 7: 35.50 – a rise of 15.6 per cent.
2017 season, complete: 32.63 factors per sport.
2018: Rounds 1 to four: 32.31
2018: Rounds 5 to 7: 39.67 – a rise of 22.eight per cent.
2018 season, complete: 35.46 factors per sport – a rise of eight.7 per cent.
So what does 2019 appear like? For Rounds 1 to four the typical rating per sport is 35.88 factors, which is 10.5 per cent increased than the identical rounds final 12 months.
Let’s extrapolate. If the entire season goes up 10.5 per cent, that suggests the ultimate season common can be that a lot increased than final 12 months’s complete – a season-long common of 39.2 factors or so, that means the typical during the last three rounds clocks in simply over 43.5 factors per sport.
Or have a look at it this manner as an alternative: in every of the primary two years scoring elevated over the again half of the season by 15 to 23 per cent. Let’s simply name it 20 factors for a simple determine to work with. That places the projected common for Rounds 5 to 7 at about 43-plus as nicely for a season common of nearly 39 too.
Is 43 factors per workforce per sport ‘watchable’ for the typical fan who solely is aware of the boys’s model of the AFL? Keep in mind that the boys’s model is about ten minutes longer per quarter, making their video games roughly 66 per cent longer than the ladies’s sport. Multiply 43 factors by 1.66 and also you’d have every workforce scoring a mean of about 71 factors per workforce per sport, almost approaching the boys’s 2018 common of 83.
Yeah, it’s greater than ‘watchable’. So in the event you haven’t tried AFLW this season, go and watch it.
Reality: One factor that threatens to spoil the watchability of the sport for me personally is the arbitrariness of the implementation of the 50-metre penalty when a participant is deemed to have interfered within the line of fireplace on a free kick. I’d really feel the identical if the boys’s sport enforces it this manner too.
To start with, 50 metres for what within the overwhelming majority of conditions is an instructional violation at most is overly extreme, even when stated violation really happens. However when the violation is as questionable because the one within the ultimate 90 seconds of the Geelong vs Carlton sport on Saturday it could possibly unfairly change the end result not solely of a sport but in addition of a season.
Maddie Boyd took a mark close to the centre sq. with 83 seconds to go within the fourth quarter and her Cats up 4 factors. Carlton had simply been pushing upfield within the individuals of Madison Prespakis and Darcie Vescio in direction of a doable game-winning aim, however nice defence by famous person Meg McDonald began the ball again the opposite means, ending in that Boyd mark. From midfield her ensuing kick was at the very least as prone to land in Carlton’s palms as Geelong’s, thus permitting the Blues another clear shot on the win.
As an alternative Boyd was awarded a 50-metre penalty for a mark infringement. I phrase it that means as a result of after rewatching that video repeatedly over the previous couple of days I nonetheless can’t let you know which Blues participant was deemed to have strayed into the legendary protected space between Boyd and her marking level. That penalty moved her kick from close to the centre sq. to inside possible goal-scoring vary, a transfer that modified the likelihood of victory for the Cats from (wild guesses right here) about 75 per cent to nicely over 90 per cent. Even by lacking it despatched the Blues all the best way again into the goalsquare and lowered their probabilities of victory.
In actual fact they by no means acquired one other shot on aim. Contemplating there have been solely three targets scored the complete sport, you see how the severity of this penalty can have an effect on the end result. If Carlton scored another aim, they’d have been main Convention B at this time. As it’s, they’re at present on the surface trying in. It’s as damaging because the unhealthy penalty shot name in hockey or within the spherical model of soccer – one free shot at aim while you rating just a few in a sport turns into the supply of random outcomes at worst and simple sport fixing at finest.
Look, I’m not saying the penalty needs to be eradicated. You couldn’t destroy the essence of this sport quicker than by eliminating the benefit a mark provides the receiver. However the arbitrary nature of the enforcement is driving me loopy. If you happen to’re not fixing an precise drawback, let it go. If the intent to affect the kick isn’t there and there’s no impact on the set shot due to their actions, why are you inserting your officialness into the end result of the sport?
And don’t get me began on the concept that in case your defender doesn’t keep in entrance of you when you transfer ahead 50, you’re capable of simply preserve going. Identify one different sport that permits the offended participant to decide on how the penalty’s enforced. Moreover ‘Calvinball’, I imply.